With the Thanksgiving games right round the corner playoff scenarios and tie breaks are heading to the forefront of every football fans mind.
This post is going to cover what I think the final playoff picture will look like in both the AFC and NFC and what teams are scarier than their record indicate.
Lets start with the playoff locks. No one has clinched yet, but there are a few teams that we know will be in almost no matter what:
In the AFC its the same as it has been for years + a new guy, the Buffalo Bills, the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, and the Houston Texans (their division is trash). The Ravens might be the only team with a slight question mark given their 7-4 record compared to the 9 win Bills and Chiefs. However, this one is mostly based on the eye test. Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson will carry that team into the postseason.
The NFC is a little cloudier because there are so many teams with elite records. However there are still 3 teams with 8 wins that we can somewhat safely assume will be part of the playoff picture (unless they are the eagles from last year). Those three are the Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles and the Minnesota Vikings.
Next we have the "probably ins" This is a shorter list because the bubble is massive this year. This tier is represented by the Steelers and the Commanders. 8 and 7 win teams respectively that don't have particularly difficult or easy schedules down the stretch.
Now, the wild cards, literally. This list is exhaustive, but we'll start with the NFC: Green Bay, San Francisco, Los Angeles Rams, Arizona, Seattle, Atlanta, and Tampa Bay.
Green Bay has a strong 7-3 record but unfortunately must play a very tough slate in the final 7 weeks. They get the dolphins and saints, but other than that, they will be in a battle every game.
San Francisco is interesting because we all know they have the talent, we have seen it in the NFC championship 4 of the last 5 years. They stand at 5-5 right now, but only one game out of first. I think we trust them with McCaffrey back to get into a rhythm and take the West.
The Rams are a fun team to root for down the stretch. Their offense is exhilarating to watch with Puka and Kupp healthy. Stafford is as electric as ever and Kyren Williams is maybe the most underrated skill position player in the NFL. I have them upsetting the Bills in week 14. If they sneak in, they are extremely dangerous.
Arizona is probably not going to be able to put it all together this year. Kyler has the Cards sitting at 6-4 and I think they remain in first all the way up until week 18 when they fall at home to the 49ers. They may miss the playoffs, but the season was a not at all a failure, finishing with a 10-7 record and maybe just a play or two short of a division title.
Seattle is also a good football team, but they will have to pull off some huge wins to get in. I see them similarly to Arizona. There is definitely a path to the postseason, but I would rather trust a 49ers team when it comes to predictions.
Atlanta currently has firm control of the division with a two game advantage of the Bucs, and they will be mad coming off their recent embarrassment in the mile-high city. I expect them to finish with a great 5-1 stretch.
Here is the other side of that coin. Atlanta better not lose one, because the Tampa Bay Buccaneers play the giants, panthers 2x, raiders, chargers, cowboys, and saints. I see 7-0 there with by far the biggest challenge being Harbaugh's chargers.
NFC Playoff Prediction
1st Seed/Bye week: 14-3 Detroit Lions
2nd Seed 13-4 Washington Commanders vs 7 seed 11-6 Minnesota Vikings
3rd seed 11-6 Atlanta Falcons vs 6 seed 11-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4th Seed 11-6 San Francisco 49ers vs 5 seed 13-4 Philadelphia Eagles
The AFC wild cards are less plentiful. The last two seeds are going to be occupied by two of the Denver Broncos, Indianapolis Colts, Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Chargers
The Indianapolis Colts are coming off a season saving win against a completely desperate Jets team that pushes their record to 5-6 and keeps them afloat. Likely it will come down to cleaning up against the bad teams like the Jags and Titans and then taking an absolute must win in week 15 against Bo Nix.
The Denver Broncos had the second lowest win total in the NFL in the preseason at 5.5. Vegas had the Denver Broncos as the 30th worst team in the NFL. Bo Nix was the 6th quarterback taken in this years draft. No one believed in the 2024 Denver Broncos. No one except Sean Payton. Denver will go on to take care of business and win the right games to get them in. What is really fun about their remaining schedule is that they play each of these wild card contenders in the final 6 games.
Los Angeles is a well coached team with a great quarterback. Teams like that very rarely miss the playoff. There is only one problem with this scenario here. Its the chargers. This is the same team that had the number one overall offense and defense in 2010 and missed the playoffs. Yes. You read that right. I like Harbaugh and I love Herbert, and they have every opportunity to make the playoffs, sitting at 7-3 with the tiebreak over the Bengals. The main concern is the schedule down the stretch is brutal. They still have the Ravens, Falcons, Chiefs, Bucs, and Broncos. In order to make the playoffs they literally just need to win one of those. Just one.
Do not count out the Cincinnati Bengals. I don't have any other 4 win teams in the wild card tier, but that is for good reason. Their offense is absolutely prolific with Chase and Higgins healthy. I see them getting scalding hot and going on a torrid run through the end of the regular season. But if they make 1 mistake, its over, and it is really hard to do that in the NFL
AFC Playoff Prediction
1st Seed/Bye 14-3 Buffalo Bills
2nd Seed 13-4 Kansan City Chiefs vs 7 seed 10-7 Los Angeles Chargers
3rd Seed 12-5 Baltimore Ravens vs 6 seed 11-6 Denver Broncos
4th Seed 11-6 Houston Texans vs 5th seed 11-6 Pittsburgh Steelers
Takeaways:
-The league is rooting against the Cincinnati Bengals, if they make the playoffs that means they have won 6 in a row and are ready for a revenge tour.
-The Denver Broncos are a good story, but almost assuredly do not have the talent for a deep run
-The Rams are in a similar boat as the Bengals. They can beat anyone in any stadium. Other teams do not want them to find their way in.
-The Lions should be the Super Bowl favorites. They are the most dominant team in football with elite talent everywhere.
-This year's race to the playoffs should be as exciting as we've ever seen.
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